Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s latest view of energy demand and supply through 2040. For many years the Outlook for Energy has helped inform ExxonMobil’s long-term business strategies, investment plans, and research programs.

Outlook for Energy: A perspective to 2040

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Key takeaways of 2040 projections

Energy is fundamental for modern life

Access to modern energy is intrinsically linked with improvements in quality of life. Over the next few decades, increasing populations and rising prosperity will increase demand for homes, businesses and transportation - and the energy that powers them.

Global energy demand rises by 20 percent; market demand trends differ for OECD and non-OECD

Continued innovation will help OECD economies expand while reducing their energy demand by about 5 percent and energy-related CO2 emissions by nearly 25 percent. In the non-OECD countries however, energy use and emissions will rise along with population growth, increased access to modern energy and improving living standards.

Global electricity demand rises 60 percent

The trend to further electrify buildings, factories, cars and buses, along with smart appliances and greater automation, spurs the need for more electricity everywhere. Solar, wind and natural gas contribute the most to meeting growth in electricity demand.

Almost half of the world’s energy is dedicated to industrial activity

New homes and roads will be constructed and household appliances produced as a result of rising population and urbanization. Steel, cement and chemicals are essential materials to satisfy these needs which, today, are energy-intensive products.

Commerce and trade drive transportation energy consumption up more than 25 percent

Increased on-road efficiency and more electric vehicles will lead to a decline in light-duty vehicle liquid fuel demand. Overall transportation fuel demand growth is driven by increased commercial activity - moving more people and products by bus, rail, plane, truck and marine vessel. Energy-dense, affordable and widely available oil will remain the predominant transportation fuel.

Global energy related CO2 emissions peak, but remain above assessed 2°C scenarios

Increased energy efficiency and a shift to lower carbon energy sources will help curb CO2 emissions, but not sufficiently to reach a 2°C pathway. Innovative technology solutions and supportive policies are still needed to achieve society’s emissions aspirations.

Oil and natural gas remain important energy sources and require significant investment

Oil and natural gas make up about 55 percent of global energy use today. By 2040, 10 of the 13 assessed 2oC scenarios project that oil and gas will continue to supply more than 50 percent of global energy. Investment in oil and natural gas is required to replace natural decline from existing production and to meet future demand under all assessed 2oC scenarios.

Energy is fundamental for modern life

Access to modern energy is intrinsically linked with improvements in quality of life. Over the next few decades, increasing populations and rising prosperity will increase demand for homes, businesses and transportation - and the energy that powers them.

Global energy demand rises by 20 percent; market demand trends differ for OECD and non-OECD

Continued innovation will help OECD economies expand while reducing their energy demand by about 5 percent and energy-related CO2 emissions by nearly 25 percent. In the non-OECD countries however, energy use and emissions will rise along with population growth, increased access to modern energy and improving living standards.

Global electricity demand rises 60 percent

The trend to further electrify buildings, factories, cars and buses, along with smart appliances and greater automation, spurs the need for more electricity everywhere. Solar, wind and natural gas contribute the most to meeting growth in electricity demand.

Almost half of the world’s energy is dedicated to industrial activity

New homes and roads will be constructed and household appliances produced as a result of rising population and urbanization. Steel, cement and chemicals are essential materials to satisfy these needs which, today, are energy-intensive products.

Commerce and trade drive transportation energy consumption up more than 25 percent

Increased on-road efficiency and more electric vehicles will lead to a decline in light-duty vehicle liquid fuel demand. Overall transportation fuel demand growth is driven by increased commercial activity - moving more people and products by bus, rail, plane, truck and marine vessel. Energy-dense, affordable and widely available oil will remain the predominant transportation fuel.

Global energy related CO2 emissions peak, but remain above assessed 2°C scenarios

Increased energy efficiency and a shift to lower carbon energy sources will help curb CO2 emissions, but not sufficiently to reach a 2°C pathway. Innovative technology solutions and supportive policies are still needed to achieve society’s emissions aspirations.

Oil and natural gas remain important energy sources and require significant investment

Oil and natural gas make up about 55 percent of global energy use today. By 2040, 10 of the 13 assessed 2oC scenarios project that oil and gas will continue to supply more than 50 percent of global energy. Investment in oil and natural gas is required to replace natural decline from existing production and to meet future demand under all assessed 2oC scenarios.

Global energy fundamentals

Energy is essential for human society’s progress. Economic expansion and improving access to energy enable longer, more productive lives for the growing global population.

Energy demand: Three drivers

Policy. Technology. Consumer preferences. All three impact how the world uses energy. Each driver influences the other and changes over time, with variances by region and political climate.

Energy supply

Energy – in all its forms – enables growth and prosperity. As economies grow, as technology advances, as consumers become more environmentally aware, and as policies adapt, global energy demand will evolve to meet changing needs.

Emissions

Providing reliable, affordable energy to support prosperity and enhance living standards is coupled with the need to do so in ways that reduce impacts on the environment, including the risks of climate change. This is society’s dual challenge and ExxonMobil takes it seriously.

Energy matters

With the world’s population estimated to reach more than 9 billion people in 2040, providing enough affordable energy to help improve global living standards is a significant challenge. We expect that continued progress, powered by human ingenuity and technology, will help make better lives possible, while appropriately addressing climate risks.

Pursuing a 2°C pathway

Many uncertainties exist concerning the future of energy demand and supply, including potential actions that societies may take to address the risks of climate change.

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2019 Outlook for Energy: A perspective to 2040

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2040. We use the Outlook to help inform our long-term business strategies and investment plans.

Report

PDF / 2.75 MB

2019 Outlook for Energy: data pages

Relevant data pertaining to 2019 Outlook for Energy report.

Data

XLSX / 0.10 MB

2019 Outlook for Energy: glossary

Glossary of terms for the 2019 Outlook for Energy report.

PDF / 0.10 MB

How we develop our Outlook

Monitoring policy and technology trends

Throughout the process, we monitor changes in technology, such as cost decreases for solar panels, improvements in battery technology and advances in well completion technology for tight oil. We also follow policy developments, such as adopted policies and ambitions formulated in context of the Paris Agreement, the European Union’s recently adopted tailpipe emissions regulations and China’s ‘blue sky’ policies.

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